Follow Us On:

Flaman Blog


RSS feed

Subscribe by Email

Archive
About the Authors

Categories

Divisions

Recent activity

Archive Selection

By Authors

Wheat production estimates up significantly, Canola expected to keep climbing further


Written By: Eric Anderson, Oct 02, 2015

CNS Canada — Despite an upward revision of nearly a million tonnes in Statistics Canada’s latest report [this morning’s], most analysts expect canola production will keep climbing further.

 

StatsCan on Friday morning released its updated grain/oilseed production estimates, with data collected through surveys taken between Sept. 3 and 13.

 

Canola production numbers came in at 14.3 million tonnes, which compares to 13.3 million in the previous report. Canada grew 16.4 million tonnes of canola in 2014.

 

Jonathon Driedger of FarmLink Marketing Solutions, near Grunthal, Man., described the report as pretty uneventful.

 

“Most numbers came in line with what the trade was expecting. Probably in the case of canola the number is pretty close to the recent number StatsCan has put out with their different methodology,” he said, referring to the agency’s September report which took into account satellite data and environmental factors along with survey responses.

 

Another analyst agreed with the notion that canola will likely keep increasing in subsequent reports.

 

“The next report is going to be closer to 15 (million tonnes) than 14.5, I can guarantee you,” said Wayne Palmer of Agri-Trend Marketing in Winnipeg.

Mike Jubinville of ProFarmer Canada said he thinks the StatsCan survey likely missed the period when yields started to increase as a result of the late summer rain.

 

“The last third or half of this harvest is probably where some of the bigger yields are. This survey was from the 3rd (of September) to the 13th, so it didn’t capture that.”

 

Most of the other crop estimates, he said, were in line with what he expected, except for barley.

 

“StatsCan boosted the harvest area by 138,000 acres, which is a bit unusual,” he said, adding that if anything, he thought barley would have lost acreage. Canada grew 7.1 million tonnes of barley last year.

 

StatsCan pegged barley production in today’s report at 7.6 million tonnes, compared to 7.3 million in the previous report.

 

All-wheat production also rose by a significant margin. StatsCan pegged it in today’s report at 26.1 million tonnes, which compares to 24.6 million in the previous report. Last year Canada grew 29.4 million tonnes of all wheat.

 

Keith Ferley of RBC Dominion Securities in Winnipeg said he was a little surprised by the increase but doesn’t expect it to rise much further in any subsequent reports.

 

“The cereals didn’t respond in the dry western regions as well as the canola did, because the rains came too late for them,” he explained.

For Jubinville’s part, he thinks all-wheat production numbers could still keep climbing.

 

“I won’t be surprised if the yield average gets bumped up more… we could see a 27 million (-tonne) wheat crop,” he said.

 

Dave Sims writes for Commodity News Service Canada, a Winnipeg company specializing in grain and commodity market reporting. Follow CNS Canada at @CNSCanada on Twitter.

 

 

Table: A quick summary of Statistics Canada’s latest crop production estimates for 2015-16, in millions of tonnes. Pre-report estimates and final 2014-15 figures included for comparison.

Like what you read here?

Why not sign up for our newsletter to receive more?

Posted in Crop reports | Tagged with crop conditions prairie crops crop reports cwb saskatchewan | More articles by Eric Anderson

Prairies' harvest a tale of two wheat crops


Written By: Eric Anderson, Oct 02, 2015

CNS Canada — Prairie farmers are in the final stages of harvesting the 2015 wheat crop, and while yields continue to beat earlier expectations, there’s a distinct quality difference between crops harvested early and those harvested late.

“In our country, all of the grain was top grade, but anything that was left out at this stage is probably a No. 3,” said Bill Craddock, a Manitoba farmer and local trader.

That sentiment is even more pronounced in Saskatchewan and Alberta.

“The first half of harvest had quality patterns in the top tier,” said market analyst Jon Driedger of Farm Link Marketing Solutions.

However, while the early-harvested wheat was generally hitting No. 1 or No. 2 quality levels, the last half was hit by rain and a good portion of that will grade No. 3 or lower.

The question now is how much will be pushed all the way down into feed-grade and how much is still salvageable for milling quality, said Driedger. “The longer this drags out, the worse it gets.”

However, grade spreads for the good-quality early-harvested wheat are not widening out as much as could be expected, with the trade still feeling it will be able to work with the supplies available, he said.

The supply of good-quality grain is still better than last year when there was more widespread degradation, said Neil Townsend, director of market research services at G3 Canada, formerly CWB.

Like what you read here?

Why not sign up for our newsletter to receive more?

Posted in Crop reports | Tagged with crop conditions prairie crops crop reports cwb saskatchewan | More articles by Eric Anderson

StatsCan raises wheat, canola estimates with new model


Written By: Eric Anderson, Sep 17, 2015

CNS Canada — Wheat and canola production are expected to be higher than in previous estimates, but still lower than in 2014, according to a new Statistics Canada model for field crop production estimates.

The model-based report, released Thursday, pegs this year’s spring wheat production at 18.4 million tonnes, higher than previously forecast in the Aug. 21 Production of Principal Field Crops report, which estimated spring wheat production at about 18 million.

Despite the increase, wheat production will still be down 13 per cent from 2014.

Canola production is expected to hit 14.4 million tonnes, compared with Aug. 21 estimate of 13.3 million.

However, canola will still see an 11.6 per cent decrease from 2014.

At this point, traders are shrugging off the new information, but it could act as an influencer moving forward.

The report, using data collected up to the end of August, confirms what the market had expected, said Jerry Klassen, manager of the Canadian office for Swiss-based GAP SA Grains and Products.

“I don’t think this is having too much of an impact overall, I think it confirms we’re down from last year.

“For now I think the trade is fairly comfortable with that production number.”

The new model-based principal field estimates are calculated with a system developed by StatsCan and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada.

The report isn’t more or less accurate than StatsCan’s previous crop production report; it’s just a different way of collecting the information, said Cindy Carter, senior analyst for StatsCan’s crops unit.

“They’re looking at having this model replace the September survey in the future.”

The method incorporates coarse-resolution satellite and agroclimatic data and incorporates information from StatsCan’s field crop reporting series.

Klassen said traders will balance the survey-based and model-based numbers and use both to come up with a yield estimate.

“It helps give us an idea, if there was significant discrepancies on the survey — it’s one more piece of information that can be used.”

The model-based report puts soybean production across Canada at 5.9 million tonnes, up 2.1 per cent from 2014, while grain corn is expected to total 12.7 million tonnes, up 12.5 per cent.

Barley production is pegged at seven million tonnes, up 0.5 per cent from 2014, while oat production is forecast to rise 10.9 per cent to 3.2 million tonnes.

Jade Markus writes for Commodity News Service Canada, a Winnipeg company specializing in grain and commodity market reporting. Follow her at @jade_markus on Twitter. Includes files from AGCanada.com Network staff.

Table: A quick summary of Statistics Canada’s model-based principal field crop estimates as of Aug. 31, 2015, released Sept. 17, 2015. Survey production estimates and last year’s crop production are included for comparison. Production in millions of tonnes.

  Model.  . Survey.  . 2014-15
Spring wheat.   . 18.4 18.0 21.3
Durum 4.8 4.5 5.2
Oats 3.2 3.3 3.0
Barley 7.0 7.3 7.1
Canola 14.4 13.3 16.4

 

Like what you read here?

Why not sign up for our newsletter to receive more?

Posted in Crop reports | Tagged with crop conditions prairie crops crop reports cwb saskatchewan | More articles by Eric Anderson

Alberta Crop Conditions as of August 25, 2015 - yields 76%-83% of normal


Written By: Eric Anderson, Aug 28, 2015

Alberta Crop Conditions as of August 25, 2015

Showers or rain was reported in virtually all areas of the province last week affecting harvest progress. Harvest is estimated at slightly less than 10% complete with an additional 12% in the swath, up from 6% combined and 6% swathed the prior week. The 5 year average for this date is 11% swathed and 4% combined. Frost was reported in northern regions in the August 21-22 time period. Damage is yet to be determined but most crops should be beyond the stage for significant damage to be expected with the possible exception of canola. Crop yield estimates continue to improve as more harvest information becomes available. Yield averages improved in 4 of the 5 regions with the Peace being the only region to decline. Yield estimates improved significantly in the North West region which is the region most affected by the dry conditions. Second growth is a significant problem for producers this year. Decisions will be required whether to wait, swath now or desiccate.

Provincial soil moisture ratings improved for both surface and sub soil ratings. Surface moisture improved 3 points to 39% rated good or excellent. Significant improvements were reported in South and Central regions. Subsoil moisture improved 2 points to 34% rated good or excellent with good improvements in the South and North East regions off set somewhat by marginal declines in the North West and Peace regions.

Hay and pasture ratings showed a slight improvement to 19% of the province rated good or excellent. Ratings were higher in the South and Central regions and little changed in the remainder of the province. Current provincial ratings are: 42% Poor (- 1); 39% Fair (no change); 19% Good (+ 2); < 1% Excellent (no change). Approximately 55% of the province indicates there will be a 2nd cut dryland hay crop. Currently, 16% of the 2nd cut dryland crop and 65% of the 2nd cut irrigated crop is baled.




Regional Assessments:
The 2015 Alberta Crop Report Series provides summaries for the following five regions:

Region One: Southern (Strathmore, Lethbridge, Medicine Hat, Foremost)

  • Showers slowed harvest operations. Heavier rains received in west portion of the region.
  • 17% of crop swathed; 24% harvested (+ 4 percentage points for the week).
  • Regional yield estimates improved to 76.3% of the 5 year average. Improved yield estimates for spring wheat, durum, barley, oats and field peas. Yield estimates declined minimally for canola (- 0.1 bu/acre).
  • Surface soil moisture ratings improved to 36% good or excellent (+ 7 points); sub soil moisture improved to 30% good or excellent (+ 3 percentage points).
  • Hay and pastures improved with 47% rated poor (- 4 points) and 14% rated good or excellent (+ 2 points).

Region Two: Central (Rimbey, Airdrie, Coronation, Oyen)

  • Fairly general rain across the region with heavier amounts in the west.
  • 9% of crop swathed; 4% harvested (+ 2 percentage points for the week).
  • Regional yield estimates improved to 80.2% of the 5 year average. Yield estimates improved for all crops except durum which was unchanged. Barley and oat estimates increased 2 bushels/acre, canola, peas and spring wheat estimates increased 1 bushel/acre.
  • Surface soil moisture improved to 59% rated good or excellent (+ 4 points). Sub soil moisture improved by 1 percentage point to 50% rated good or excellent.
  • Hay/pasture ratings showed significant improvement with a 2 point decline in the Poor rating to 33% and with a 5 point increase to the good or excellent rating to 28%.

Region Three: North East (Smoky Lake, Vermilion, Camrose, Provost)

  • Showers reported in much of the region with light rain in the east portion along the Saskatchewan border. Light frost reported in western portion of the region.
  • 5% of crop swathed; 3% harvested (+ 2.5 percentage points for the week).
  • Regional yield estimates increased to 78.0% of the 5 year average. Estimates improved for all crops by 1 bushel/acre.
  • Surface soil moisture ratings improved by 2 points to 41% rated good or excellent. Sub soil ratings are 37% rated good or excellent (up 6 points).
  • Pasture/hay ratings unchanged at 23% rated good or excellent.

Region Four: North West (Barrhead, Edmonton, Leduc, Drayton Valley, Athabasca)

  • Light showers reported throughout the region. Frost reported in many areas.
  • 5% of crops swathed; 5% harvested (+ 4 percentage points for the week).
  • Regional yield estimates are significantly higher than previously reported at 76.9% of the 5 year average yield (previously 69.4%). Yield estimates increased 4 – 6 bushels/acre with barley the exception with 1 bushel decline.
  • Surface soil moisture improved marginally with less than 1 point increase to 19% good or excellent. Sub soil moisture ratings declined to 15% good or excellent (- 3 points).
  • Pasture/hay ratings were virtually unchanged with 11% of region rated good or excellent.

Region Five: Peace River (Fairview, Falher, Grande Prairie, Valleyview)

  • Region received variable precipitation from light, spotty showers to 50 mm of rain. Heavy frost reported.
  • 23% of crops swathed; 6% combined (+ 4 percentage points for the week).
  • Regional yield estimates declined marginally to 83.1% of 5 year yield average. Yield estimates declined by approximately 0.5 bushels/acre. The exception was field pea yield which increased approximately 1 bushel/acre.
  • Surface and sub soil moisture ratings were reported as unchanged at 26% rated good or excellent.
  • Pasture/hay ratings declined 1 percentage point to 15% rated good or excellent.

 

 

 

Like what you read here?

Why not sign up for our newsletter to receive more?

Posted in Crop reports | Tagged with crop conditions prairie crops crop reports cwb saskatchewan | More articles by Eric Anderson

Overall crop conditions still improving


Written By: Eric Anderson, Aug 25, 2015

The imagery from the Crop Condition Assessment Program shows continued crop improvement.  The August 23rd image displays most regions approaching "normal."   An image from August 9th shows a much large and consistent "brown" or "below normal area." in Alberta.  Going back to July 6th, most of the prairies was "brown" or "below normal."

 

 

Like what you read here?

Why not sign up for our newsletter to receive more?

Posted in Crop reports | Tagged with crop conditions prairie crops crop reports cwb saskatchewan | More articles by Eric Anderson

Crop conditions holding their ground


Written By: Eric Anderson, Aug 10, 2015

Today's new imagery reveals that things have hle dtheir ground - with more blue areas (good) and the brown being pushed out (well, at least for SK and MB).  To see how much things have changed, see http://www.flaman.com/blog.php?id=225&title=Crop conditions improving a lot

Like what you read here?

Why not sign up for our newsletter to receive more?

Posted in Crop reports | Tagged with crop conditions prairie crops crop reports cwb saskatchewan | More articles by Eric Anderson

Crop conditions continue improving


Written By: Eric Anderson, Aug 06, 2015

Things continue to improve!  More dark blue (higher than normal vegetation), and the brown (much lower than normal) has almost been entirely squeezed out of Saskatchewan and Manitoba.

 

Like what you read here?

Why not sign up for our newsletter to receive more?

Posted in Crop reports | Tagged with crop conditions prairie crops crop reports cwb saskatchewan manitoba alberta | More articles by Eric Anderson

G3 Global closes CWB deal and retires name


Written By: Eric Anderson, Aug 04, 2015

Commodity News Service Canada – G3 Global Grain Group, a newly established agribusiness joint venture based in Winnipeg, has officially closed its investment in a majority interest in CWB, the former Canadian Wheat Board.

CWB will be combined with the grain assets of Bunge Canada to form a new Canadian agribusiness, G3 Canada Limited, a news release from CWB said on Friday.

“Combining the local market presence and global expertise of CWB and Bunge Canada Grain provides the opportunity to fulfill a promise to Canadian producers – to create a new and competitive alternative for the marketing of their grain,” said Karl Gerrand, G3 CEO in the release.

“The name change to G3 Canada Limited represents another step towards our vision of building a highly efficient coast to coast grain handling enterprise, and I welcome the opportunity to work with the dedicated teams from G3, Bunge Canada and CWB, who have worked so hard to bring these transactions to a successful conclusion.”

CWB’s President and CEO, Ian White, helped lead the organization through the transformational process, and is gratified with the investment outcome.

“CWB is pleased to complete the initiative to commercialize. The capital investment G3 brings, as well as extensive operational experience, is a huge benefit to the sector, and we are pleased that Canadian grain producers will be able to continue to participate in the growth of the new company,” White said.

Like what you read here?

Why not sign up for our newsletter to receive more?

Posted in Farm related news | Tagged with cwb wheat board | More articles by Eric Anderson

Crop conditions improving even more


Written By: Eric Anderson, Jul 27, 2015

The July 26 crop condition assessment imagery reveals that the recent rains have helped a lot of areas' crops.  The July 26 image portrays less brown with more yellow and blue regions, than say the July 5 image (both provided below).  This means that in comparison to previous years, more areas are starting to look similar and some even better than normal.

 

 

Like what you read here?

Why not sign up for our newsletter to receive more?

Posted in Crop reports | Tagged with crop conditions prairie crops crop reports cwb saskatchewan | More articles by Eric Anderson

CWB tour reports durum doing better in South East Alberta


Written By: Eric Anderson, Jul 22, 2015

Durum, the wheat used to make pasta, has fared better against dry conditions than other major crops in a pocket of southeastern Alberta, crop tour scouts noted on Wednesday.

Durum is typically planted in drier soils than spring wheat, but fields still looked surprisingly decent, given some of the driest conditions in decades on the Prairies.

Yields looked to fall slightly below average in the area, said Justin Daniels, director of commodity risk management at CWB Market Research Services.

“We haven’t seen a disaster yet in durum,” he said in drizzly conditions.

The tour organized by CWB Market Research is travelling through Thursday on three routes across the provinces of Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba.

Durum stood tall and carried large heads of kernels in most fields.

Quality of durum in Canada — the biggest exporter – may be more important than the crop’s size, given lower grades last year, said Courtney Boryski, a trader at U.S. commodity company Gavilon.

Like what you read here?

Why not sign up for our newsletter to receive more?

Posted in Crop reports | Tagged with durum wheat crop report Alberta CWB | More articles by Eric Anderson

CWB tour reports crops varied in Saskatchewan


Written By: Eric Anderson, Jul 22, 2015

The effect of this years dry weather is becoming increasingly apparent as the CWB crop tour moves into Saskatchewan.
Lack of moisture is visible in southwestern Manitoba and southeastern Saskatchewan, the CWB tour found.

However, dryness hasn’t been all bad in some areas — participants from the 2014 crop tour recall a field last year that was drowned out and covered in cattails. This year the same field near Hartney, Man. still had signs of moisture damage, but canola crops had improved significantly.

Like what you read here?

Why not sign up for our newsletter to receive more?

Posted in Crop reports | Tagged with crop conditions prairie crops crop reports cwb saskatchewan | More articles by Eric Anderson

CWB pegs canola production at 12.18 million tonnes


Written By: Eric Anderson, Jul 22, 2015

Commodity news Service Canada is reporting that . . .

CWB is estimating the Canadian canola crop will produce 12.18 million tonnes in 2015/16 (Aug/Jul),

The projection is below a previous estimate from the company of 12.60 to 13.00 million tonnes, which was released in the June 25, 2015 Pool Return Outlook report.

The CWB projection compares to average trade guesses of 13.5 million, the company’s supply and demand table showed.

Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC) released their own supply and demand tables on July 21, pegging Canadian canola production for 2014/15 at 14.30 million tonnes.

In 2014/15 Canadian canola production totaled 15.56 million tonnes, according to Statistics Canada figures.

 

Full story at http://www.agcanada.com/daily/cwb-pegs-canola-production-at-12-18-mln-tonnes

 

 

Like what you read here?

Why not sign up for our newsletter to receive more?

Posted in Crop reports | Tagged with canola cwb crop production | More articles by Eric Anderson