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StatsCan production estimates 'too low' for canola, wheat


Written By: Eric Anderson, Aug 24, 2015

CNS Canada — Statistics Canada released its first survey-based production estimates for the 2015-16 crop year Friday morning, with canola and wheat figures coming in at the lower end of expectations.

But the grain trade is shrugging off the report, as it believes final production numbers for most crops will be larger than what Statistics Canada estimated in Friday’s report.

“I think everyone in the marketplace is of the opinion that the crop conditions have improved since the survey was taken, so this crop is bigger than what the numbers suggest,” said Mike Jubinville of ProFarmer Canada.

StatsCan pegged 2015-16 wheat production at 24.625 million tonnes, at the lower end of expectations and below the 29.281 million tonnes grown in 2014-15.

The final number is likely to be about a million tonnes larger, due to improved weather conditions since the survey was conducted in late July, Jubinville added.

As of Friday morning, U.S. wheat futures markets weren’t reacting to the report, as StatsCan’s estimate was very similar to the latest U.S. Department of Agriculture projection for Canadian wheat, he noted.

StatsCan pegged canola production at 13.343 million tonnes, in the middle of pre-report guesses, but down from the 15.555 million tonnes grown last year.

“The StatsCan (canola) number is too low. It will be adjusted higher in the next two months — I think closer to 14 million tonnes. And our carryout will probably balloon above a million (tonnes),” said Errol Anderson of ProMarket Communications.

Because the production number for canola is likely inaccurate, the trade is dismissing the report and turning the focus back onto North American harvest conditions and China’s economic situation, Jubinville said.

While there are worries about China reducing its purchases of canola due to its economic problems, he said he believes they’ll still be a large buyer of Canadian canola.

“All the fearmongering that’s going on about economic turmoil in China restricting or curtailing their commodity purchases, I don’t think is going to apply to canola,” Jubinville said. “So they’re going to buy whatever they need, and going to eat up whatever extra production we add to this production number.”

Terryn Shiells writes for Commodity News Service Canada, a Winnipeg company specializing in grain and commodity market reporting. Follow her at @TerrynShiells on Twitter.

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Posted in Crop reports | Tagged with wheat canola production forecast | More articles by Eric Anderson

Canadian wheat, canola, and durum export destinations


Written By: Eric Anderson, Aug 17, 2015

Statistics Canada released our grain export destinations for June 2015 today.  Below are the total quarterly Canadian exports for three major crops (including June 2015):

 

 

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Posted in Farm related news | Tagged with wheat canola durum Canadian exports | More articles by Eric Anderson

June grain prices - SK Lentils up 53%


Written By: Eric Anderson, Aug 06, 2015

Statistics Canada released the June grain prices today.

In Manitoba, Canola and Wheat prices were up slightly from last June, with Dry peas down slightly.

In Saskatchewan, Lentil prices were up 53% from last June, with all of the other crops up slightly.

 

In Alberta, Canola and Durum were up dramatically, with the remainder up slightly.

 

When all months are considered on the long-term trend, all three provinces have resumed an upward trend on all crops.

 

 

Source:  http://www.statcan.gc.ca/daily-quotidien/150806/dq150806a-eng.htm?cmp=mstatcan

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Posted in Commodity prices | Tagged with wheat canola durum lentils prices Alberta Saskatchewan Manitoba | More articles by Eric Anderson

U.S. grains - Prices advance on crop, weather worries


Written By: Eric Anderson, Aug 05, 2015

Reuters is reporting that  . . .

U.S. grain and soybean futures jumped on Wednesday as concerns about poor weather hurting autumn harvests fuelled a recovery from recent losses in the markets.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture, in a crop report on Aug. 12, may trim its U.S. soybean acreage and ending stocks estimates because of excessive rains that disrupted spring plantings, traders said.

Traders were also keeping an eye on weather forecasts amid worries that some growing areas may turn too dry during an important period for soybean development this month.

“Additional risk premium is being added to corn, wheat and soybean futures ahead of critical U.S. supply updates from the USDA,” Chicago-based agricultural consultancy AgResource Co. said in a note.

. . . .

In the wheat market, Egypt, one of the world’s largest wheat importers, said it bought 120,000 tonnes of Russian wheat in a tender.

U.S. wheat is seen as too expensive to be competitive on the export market.

On Thursday, traders will digest weekly U.S. grain export sales data from the USDA.

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Posted in Commodity prices | Tagged with canola wheat barley oats crop prices saskatchewan | More articles by Eric Anderson

Europe's harvest begins - looks OK


Written By: Eric Anderson, Jul 24, 2015

Reuters is reporting that . . . .

The harvest is moving northwards in both France and the second biggest producer Germany, but has yet to start in Britain where rain has been too late to arrive to help the crop much. Storms have slowed the Polish harvest.

 

French trade and analyst's soft wheat crop forecasts are now around 37.5-38.5 million tonnes against 37.5 million in 2014, above estimates of around 36.5-37 million tonnes during a heatwave and dryness in mid-July.

Protein levels were reported to be good in southwest France, but disappointing in a belt crossing France between the Atlantic port of La Pallice to the German border. Other quality criteria such as Hagberg falling numbers and humidity were reported to be good nationwide.

Agritel forecast Germany's crop at 24.9 million tonnes, down 10 percent on 2014.

 

In Britain prolonged dry weather could crimp yields.

Full story at http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/07/24/europe-wheat-harvest-idUSL5N10428T20150724

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Posted in Crop reports | Tagged with crop report Europe wheat canola | More articles by Eric Anderson

CWB crop estimates wheat at 38.9 b/a, canola at 29.3


Written By: Eric Anderson, Jul 24, 2015

Reuters is reporitng that  . . .

Western Canada spring wheat, durum and canola yields look to fall sharply from last year’s levels, due to hot, dry conditions, leaders of a crop tour said on Friday.

The second-annual CWB Market Research Services crop tour pegged spring wheat yield potential in the region at 38.9 bushels per acre on average, down from last year’s actual yield of 45.7 bushels, and the smallest in eight years.

The potential durum yield fell to 27.8 bushels per acre from last year’s yield of 40.9 bushels, the smallest since 2003.

Canola yields looked to reach 29.3 bushels per acre on average, down from last year’s 34.4 bushels and the lowest in three years.

CWB under-estimated crops on the eastern Prairies before the tour. After the tour, it raised its estimates for Western Canadian production of all-wheat to 23.1 million tonnes (22.02 million previously), spring wheat output to 18.14 million tonnes (17.25 million), durum to 4.19 million tonnes (4 million), and canola to 12.49 million tonnes (from 12.15 million).

Full story at http://www.agcanada.com/daily/cwb-tour-pegs-wheat-at-38-9-bushels

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Posted in Crop reports | Tagged with wheat canola crop estimates crop forecast | More articles by Eric Anderson

Oil seed crushing - continues on trend lines with June rising


Written By: Eric Anderson, Jul 23, 2015

Statistics Canada released the June 2015 oil seed crushing data today.

The amounts have level-off over the past few years.

 

However, June-only amounts continue to rise.

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Posted in Farm related news | Tagged with canola oil seed crushing | More articles by Eric Anderson

June grain deliveries up, but quarter looks similar


Written By: Eric Anderson, Jul 23, 2015

Statistics Canada has released the June 2015 grain deliveries data.

Compared to previous Junes, the deliveries were up dramatically for wheat and canola in Saskatchewan, while Alberta and Manitoba were along current trends.

 

Compared to previous 2nd quarter deliveries, deliveries average-out a bit and on Saskatchewan durum wheat saw a dramatic change.

 

And,.if you want to see the historical flow, here it is:

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Posted in Farm related news | Tagged with wheat durum canola grain deliveries | More articles by Eric Anderson

CWB pegs canola production at 12.18 million tonnes


Written By: Eric Anderson, Jul 22, 2015

Commodity news Service Canada is reporting that . . .

CWB is estimating the Canadian canola crop will produce 12.18 million tonnes in 2015/16 (Aug/Jul),

The projection is below a previous estimate from the company of 12.60 to 13.00 million tonnes, which was released in the June 25, 2015 Pool Return Outlook report.

The CWB projection compares to average trade guesses of 13.5 million, the company’s supply and demand table showed.

Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC) released their own supply and demand tables on July 21, pegging Canadian canola production for 2014/15 at 14.30 million tonnes.

In 2014/15 Canadian canola production totaled 15.56 million tonnes, according to Statistics Canada figures.

 

Full story at http://www.agcanada.com/daily/cwb-pegs-canola-production-at-12-18-mln-tonnes

 

 

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Posted in Crop reports | Tagged with canola cwb crop production | More articles by Eric Anderson

Manitoba crops better is east than west


Written By: Eric Anderson, Jul 22, 2015

Ag Canada is reporting that . . .

As this year’s CWB crop tour moves west through Manitoba, crops have started looking thinner as the area has been drier than in the eastern part of the province..

Canola around Killarney doesn’t look good compared to its eastern Manitoba counterparts. Canola in western Manitoba is still flowering. The later bloom is likely due to reseeding, say farmers on the tour.

One wheat crop around Boissevain looked better than others in the area, but signs of fusarium head blight could be seen on some plants.

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Posted in Crop reports | Tagged with Manitoba crop canola wheat | More articles by Eric Anderson

Farmers offered a prize for 100-bushel canola


Written By: Eric Anderson, Jul 22, 2015

Ag Canada is reporting that . . . .

A complete set of John Deere equipment for the first to crack 100 bushels on 50 acres

Producing bigger crops on the same amount of land is the challenge for ensuring world food security. North American canola growers who want to meet that challenge now have an extra incentive — a complete John Deere equipment package if they’re the first to grow 100 bushels per acre on 50 acres of canola.

Canola 100 is the first of a series of Agri-Prize competitions organized by Agri-Trend and sponsored by John Deere and Glacier FarmMedia. The competition is designed to inspire farmers to pursue innovative methods to grow a safe, reliable and environmentally sustainable food supply to better feed the world.

The competition was announced July 21 at the opening day of Ag in Motion in Saskatoon.

“Farmers have hit 80 and even 90 bushels”, explains Agri-Trend CEO, Robert Saik “so we believe the 100 bushels per acre is an attainable stretch that will involve farmers paying attention to every detail. This is why we are excited about partnering with John Deere and Glacier FarmMedia to bring this competition to canola growers.”

The contest is open to any non-irrigated farmer growing spring-seeded canola in the canola belt of Canada and the United States. It’s open to any type of genetics and farming technology. The first farmer to produce a verified average of 100 bushels per acre on 50 acres of contiguously seeded canola will win a prize package of 100 hours each of a John Deere tractor, air seeder, high-clearance sprayer, windrower and combine.

Canola 100 will run for three crops starting in 2016. If the 100-bushel mark has not been reached by 2018, the highest recorded yield will take the prize.

For official rules (to be posted Sept.) and details go to www.agriprize.com

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Canola exports to South Korea up 171%


Written By: Eric Anderson, Jul 21, 2015

The Vancouver Sun is reporting that . . .

Seven months after Canada’s first free-trade agreement with an Asian country went into effect, the deal is already boosting the first group of Canadian goods that had their South Korean import tariffs removed, officials said.

Trade officials said figures showing Canada accumulating a trade deficit with South Korea during the first months of the free-trade deal are misleading, since the figures included coal, where the demand has softened.

In a recent interview, Lee Kie Cheon, consul-general for South Korea in Vancouver, said the deal’s benefits for Canadian businesses and the economy can already be seen in a number of sectors. Among the commodities already recording gains: Canadian exports of canola (up 171 per cent in the first six months of this year), frozen pork (up 40 per cent up to May), and B.C. seafood (up 133 per cent from January to April).

The Canada-South Korea free-trade agreement went into effect on Jan. 1.

 

Full story at The Vancouver Sun, JUly 20, 2015, Page A11

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Posted in Farm related news | Tagged with canola south korea free trade agreement | More articles by Eric Anderson

Canola, wheat, barley, and oats prices up!


Written By: Eric Anderson, Jul 20, 2015

 

From http://www.agriculture.gov.sk.ca/MarketTrends

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Posted in Commodity prices | Tagged with canola wheat barley oats crop prices saskatchewan | More articles by Eric Anderson

Canola replating may hinder winter wheat seeding


Written By: Eric Anderson, Jul 20, 2015

CNS is reporting that . . .

With canola as the preferred stubble choice into which to seed winter wheat in Western Canada, it’s possible farmers will run into problems seeding this fall due to vast canola reseeding in early June.

“The crop insurance said there was over a million acres reseeded (in Manitoba), and when you reseed, unless you were very early when you started, that’s going to put the crop back,” said Jake Davidson, executive director of Winter Cereals Canada.

“If the canola is not off in time, it’s going to get in our way a bit as far as the seeding of the winter wheat goes.”

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Posted in Crop reports | Tagged with winter wheat canola crop report | More articles by Eric Anderson