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El Nino's Peak Has Weather Forecaster Warning of La Nina - with the opposite results


Written By: Eric Anderson, Jan 05, 2016
Bloomberg is reporting at here that a number of El Nino-Southern Oscillation indicators suggest that the 2015-16 El Nino has peaked and weather models predict it will decline in coming months, Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology said on its website on Tuesday. Conditions will return to neutral during the second quarter with a chance of La Nina in the second half of 2016, it said.
 
La Nina is a cooling in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, sometimes thought of as El Nino’s opposite. The two are extreme phases of a naturally occurring cycle, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Based on the 26 El Nino events since 1900, about 50 percent have been followed by a neutral year with 40 percent by La Nina, according to Australia’s weather bureau.
 
“Neutral and La Nina are equally likely for the second half,” the bureau said. A repeat of El Nino is the least likely outcome, it said.
 
The current El Nino is rated as one of the three strongest since 1950. The warming of the equatorial Pacific changes weather worldwide, bringing drought to parts of Asia while the southern U.S. can get more rain. Its effects helped palm oil cap its best year since 2010, while sugar posted its first annual gain in five years.
 
Roiling Markets
 
La Nina can also roil agricultural markets as it changes weather. A large part of the agricultural U.S. tends to dry out during La Nina events, while parts of Australia and Indonesia can be wetter than normal. Citigroup Inc. has said that a transition to a strong La Nina may present significant upside potential for grains price volatility.
 
The previous La Nina began in 2010 and endured into 2012. Conditions typically last between 9 months and 12 months, while some episodes may persist for as long as two years, according to NOAA. Both La Nina and El Nino tend to peak during the Northern Hemisphere winter.
 
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Posted in Ag news | Tagged with el nino la nina weather | More articles by Eric Anderson

Above average temps and average precip for next 9-months


Written By: Eric Anderson, Sep 30, 2015

Environment Canada published their long range forecast maps today.  The below maps reveal higher probability of above average temperatures (yellow and red colors) for each of the next 3-month windows (the three maps), with about average precipitation (represented by the white/no-color regions) in the following three maps.

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Posted in Farm related news | Tagged with weather weather forecasting Canada | More articles by Eric Anderson

El Nino to strengthen in winter, gradually weaken in spring


Written By: Eric Anderson, Sep 11, 2015

Reuters— A U.S. government weather forecaster on Thursday said El Nino conditions would gradually weaken through the Northern Hemisphere spring after peaking in late fall or early winter.

The National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center said the likelihood that El Nino conditions would persist through the Northern Hemisphere winter was about 95 per cent, up from a more than 90 per cent chance in last month’s forecast.

There has been a growing consensus among forecasters for a strong El Nino, the warming of Pacific sea-surface temperatures. The World Meteorological Organization said last week that this year’s phenomenon could be the strongest on record and was likely to peak between October and January.

The weather pattern can roil crops and commodities prices. Japan’s weather bureau said earlier on Thursday that there was a strong possibility that El Nino would stretch into the winter.

El Nino conditions would probably contribute to a below-normal Atlantic hurricane season and to above-normal seasons in both the central and Eastern Pacific hurricane basins, the CPC said.

It added that across the contiguous U.S., the effects of El Nino were likely to remain minimal during the early Northern Hemisphere autumn and increase into the late fall and winter.

The CPC said this month that “all models surveyed” predicted that El Nino would last into the Northern Hemisphere spring, up from an 80 per cent chance it estimated last month.

The El Nino phenomenon would mean increased likelihood of rain for parched areas of drought-stricken California later in the fall, although the Pacific Northwest states of Oregon and Washington would probably not get much relief.

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Posted in Farm related news | Tagged with weather el nino | More articles by Eric Anderson

WeatherFarm and AccuWeather still tied for lead in weather forecasting contest


Written By: Eric Anderson, Aug 28, 2015

With this week's win by Environment Canada, they are inching-up on our tied contest leaders AccuWeather and WeatherFarm.

We have now completed 10 rounds of our weather forecasting contest (the first round did not include WeatherFarm, but the next 9 did). 

Here are the Total points for the last 9 rounds (with Weather Farm) and then all 10 rounds (without Weather Farm).

 

Here are the ranked weekly results - by points that week (forecaster names then week #):

Here are our contest rules:

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Posted in Farm related news | Tagged with weather weather forecasting saskatchewan saskatoon | More articles by Eric Anderson

Environment Canada wins round 10 of our weather forecasting contest


Written By: Eric Anderson, Aug 28, 2015

The resuts from the 10th weather forecasting contest ending August 27th are in - the chart below reveals the current contest results and the formula.

Environment Canada had the best 3-day forecast - according to the rules we created without consulting a meterologist.  Consider this "for entertainment purposes only." 

This week the overnight lows for days 2 and 3 were vastly different than anybody forecasted, resulting in some of our lowest scores ever.

Currently, WeatherFarm and AccuWeather are tied for most wins at 4 each, Environment Canada follows with 2 wins, and Weather Network has yet to register a win.

The forecasts were captured at the same time, the day prior to the start of the contest, from the various forecasting groups' websites, for "Saskatoon, SK"

Here are the current round's results:

Here are our contest rules:

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Posted in Farm related news | Tagged with weather weather forecasting saskatchewan saskatoon | More articles by Eric Anderson

WeatherFarm ties AccuWeather for lead in weather forecasting contest


Written By: Eric Anderson, Aug 24, 2015

With this week's win by WeatherFarm, they have now tied AccuWeather for the most wins in our weather forecasting contest.

We have now completed 9 rounds of our weather forecasting contest (the first round did not include WeatherFarm, but the next 8 did). 

 

Here are the Total points for the last 8 rounds (with Weather Farm) and then all 9 rounds (without Weather Farm).

 

Here are the ranked weekly results - by points that week (forecaster names then week #):

 

Here are our contest rules:

 

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Posted in Farm related news | Tagged with weather weather forecasting saskatchewan saskatoon | More articles by Eric Anderson

WeatherFarm wins round 9 of the ongoing weather forecasting contest


Written By: Eric Anderson, Aug 24, 2015

The resuts from the 9th weather forecasting contest ending August 23rd are in - the chart below reveals the current contest results and the formula.

WeatherFarm (using their results data, not Environmnet Canada's) had the best 3-day forecast - according to the rules we created without consulting a meterologist.  Consider this "for entertainment purposes only." 

WeatherFarm has now tied AccuWeather for most wins at 4 each, Environment Canada follows with 1 win, and Weather Network has yet to register a win.

The forecasts were captured at the same time, the day prior to the start of the contest, from the various forecasting groups' websites, for "Saskatoon, SK"

Here are the current round's results:

 

 

Here are our contest rules:

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Posted in Farm related news | Tagged with weather weather forecasting saskatchewan saskatoon | More articles by Eric Anderson

AccuWeather still leading weather forecasting contest


Written By: Eric Anderson, Aug 18, 2015

With this week's win by WeatherFarm, they are closing in on AccuWeather for the most wins in our weather forecasting contest.

We have now completed 8 rounds of our weather forecasting contest (the first round did not include WeatherFarm, but the next 7 did). 

AccuWeather is out in front with 4 weekly-wins so far:

 

 

Here are the Total points for the last 7 rounds (with Weather Farm) and then all 8 rounds (without Weather Farm).

 

 

Here are the ranked weekly results - by points that week (forecaster names then week #):

 

Here are our contest rules:

 

 

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Posted in Farm related news | Tagged with weather weather forecasting saskatchewan saskatoon | More articles by Eric Anderson

Weather Farm wins round 8 of weather forecasting contest


Written By: Eric Anderson, Aug 18, 2015

The resuts from the 8th weather forecasting contest ending August 17th are in - the chart below reveals the current contest results and the formula.

WeatherFarm (using their results data, not Environmnet Canada's) had the best 3-day forecast - according to the rules we created without consulting a meterologist.  Consider this "for entertainment purposes only." 

AccuWeather still leads the contest with the most wins (at 4) and most total points, with WeatherFarm in 2nd with 3 wins, and Environment Canada in 3rd with 1 win (Weather Network has yet to register a win).

Of note, this weeks score by WeatherFarm was the highest recorded to date!

The forecasts were captured at the same time, the day prior to the start of the contest, from the various forecasting groups' websites, for "Saskatoon, SK"

Here are the current round's results:

Hetre are pur contest rules:

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Posted in Farm related news | Tagged with weather weather forecasting saskatchewan saskatoon | More articles by Eric Anderson

WeatherFarm closing in on AccuWeather to lead weather forecasting contest


Written By: Eric Anderson, Aug 14, 2015

With this week's win by WeatherFarm, they are closing in on AccuWeather for the most wins in our weather forecasting contest.

We have now completed 7 rounds of our weather forecasting contest (the first round did not include WeatherFarm, but the next five did). 

AccuWeather is out in front with 4 weekly-wins so far:

Here are the Total points for the last 6 rounds (with Weather Farm) and then all 7 rounds (without Weather Farm).

Here are the ranked weekly results - by points that week (forecaster names then week #):

Here is our points formula:

 

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Posted in Farm related news | Tagged with weather weather forecasting saskatchewan saskatoon | More articles by Eric Anderson

WeatherFarm wins round 7 of weather forecasting contest


Written By: Eric Anderson, Aug 14, 2015

The resuts from the 7th weather forecasting contest ending August 13th are in - the chart below reveals the current contest results and the formula.

WeatherFarm (using their results data, not Environmnet Canada's) had the best 3-day forecast - according to the rules we created without consulting a meterologist.  Consider this "for entertainment purposes only."  AccuWeather still leads the contest with the most wins (at 4) and most total points, with WeatherFarm in 2nd with 2 wins, and Environment Canada in 3rd with 1 win (Weather Network has yet to register a win).

The forecasts were captured at the same time, the day prior to the start of the contest, from the various forecasting groups' websites, for "Saskatoon, SK"

Here are the current round's results:

 

Here is the contest's points formula:

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Posted in Farm related news | Tagged with weather weather forecasting saskatchewan saskatoon | More articles by Eric Anderson

El Nino now seen more likely to last into spring


Written By: Eric Anderson, Aug 14, 2015

Reuters is reporting that  . . .

A U.S. government weather forecaster on Thursday raised the likelihood that El Nino conditions would last into the Northern Hemisphere’s early spring to 85 per cent, boosting the probability that drought-stricken California could see increased rains.

The Climate Prediction Center, a U.S. National Weather Service agency, last month forecast an 80 per cent chance that conditions would last through early spring. The CPC still says there is a more than 90 per cent chance that El Nino conditions would last through the Northern Hemisphere winter.

The new forecast marginally raises the risk that the El Nino phenomenon, the warming of Pacific sea-surface temperatures, will unleash a period of extreme and potentially damaging weather across the globe.

Past instances have caused heavy rains and floods, hitting grain crops in South America, and scorching weather as far as Asia and East Africa.

But one potential El Nino beneficiary could be California, where record-low rainfall has prompted water usage restrictions and contributed to the spread of devastating wildfires.

“It definitely would increase the likelihood of heavy rains in the winter there, which would certainly improve their situation tremendously,” said Donald Keeney, senior agricultural meteorologist with Maryland-based MDA Weather Services.

California could begin to get increased rainfall as early as October and definitely by November or December, Keeney said.

Rainfall will probably not increase in the Pacific Northwest states of Oregon and Washington, which are also suffering from droughts, although they could experience higher temperatures like much of the northern U.S., Keeney said.

The CPC said the effects of El Nino were likely to remain minimal across the contiguous U.S. for the rest of the summer but would increase into the late fall and winter.

In Western and central Canada, an El Nino event is most often associated with above-normal temperatures and drier conditions during winter.

El Nino would probably contribute to a below-normal Atlantic hurricane season, the CPC said. That would reduce the likelihood of storms disrupting energy operations in the Gulf of Mexico.

However, the agency said El Nino was likely to lead to above-normal hurricane seasons in both the central and Eastern Pacific hurricane basins.

Reporting for Reuters by Luc Cohen in New York. Includes files from AGCanada.com Network staff.

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Posted in Farm related news | Tagged with el nino global weather climate change | More articles by Eric Anderson

AccuWeather continues leading our forecasting contest


Written By: Eric Anderson, Aug 10, 2015

We have now completed six rounds of our weather forecasting challenge (the first round did not include WeatherFarm, but the next 6 did). 

AccuWeather is out in front with 4 weekly-wins so far:

Here are the Total points for the last 5 rounds (with Weather Farm) and then all 6 rounds (without Weather Farm).

 

 

Here are the ranked weekly results - by points that week (forecaster names then week #):

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Posted in Farm related news | Tagged with weather weather forecasting saskatchewan saskatoon | More articles by Eric Anderson

Who has the best weather forecast - AccuWeather wins again


Written By: Eric Anderson, Aug 10, 2015

The resuts from the 6th weather forecasting contest ending August 7th are in - the below charts reveal the current contest results and the formula.

AccuWeather had the best 3-day forecast - according to the rules we created without consulting a meterologist.  Consider this "for entertainment purposes only."  AccuWeather leads the contest with the most wins (at 4) and most total points.  Environment Canada and WeatherFarm also have 1-win each.

The forecasts were captured at the same time, the day prior to the start of the contest, from the various forecasting groups' websites, for "Saskatoon, SK"

Here are the current round's results:

Here are the contest rules:

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Posted in Farm related news | Tagged with weather weather forecasting saskatchewan saskatoon | More articles by Eric Anderson

AccuWeather still leading our forecasting contest


Written By: Eric Anderson, Aug 04, 2015

We have now completed five rounds of our weather forecasting challenge (the first round did not include WeatherFarm, but the next four did). 

AccuWeather is out in front with 3 weekly-wins so far:

Here are the Total points for the last four rounds (with Weather Farm) and then all five rounds (without Weather Farm).

 

 

Here are the ranked weekly results - by points (forecaster then week #):

 

Here are the contest rules:

 

 

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Posted in Farm related news | Tagged with weather weather forecasting saskatchewan saskatoon | More articles by Eric Anderson

Who had best weather forecast - Environment Canada this time


Written By: Eric Anderson, Aug 04, 2015

The resuts from the 5th weather forecasting contest are in - the below charts reveal the current contest results and the formula.

Environment Canada had the best 3-day forecast - according to the rules we created without consulting a meterologist.  Consider this "for entertainment purposes only."  This was Environment Canada's first win - Accu Weather has won three-times and Weather Farm once.

The forecasts were captured at the same time, the day prior to the start of the contest, from the various forecasting groups' websites, for "Saskatoon, SK"

Here are the current round's results:

 

Here are our contest rules:

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Posted in Farm related news | Tagged with weather weather forecasting saskatchewan saskatoon | More articles by Eric Anderson

Weather forecasting contest results to date - AccuWeather in the lead


Written By: Eric Anderson, Jul 28, 2015

We have now completed four rounds of our weather forecasting challenge.  The first round did not include WeatherFarm, but the next three did. 

Here are the Totals for the last three rounds (with Weather Farm) and then all four rounds (without Weather Farm).

 

 

The weekly results that led to these totals are:

 

The contests rules and format are:

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Posted in Farm related news | Tagged with weather weather forecasting saskatchewan saskatoon | More articles by Eric Anderson

Weather forecasting contest results - round 4 - AccuWeather wins again


Written By: Eric Anderson, Jul 28, 2015

The resuts from the 4th weather forecasting contest are in - the below charts reveal the current contest results and the formula. 

AccuWeather had the best 3-day forecast (again) - according to the rules we created without consulting a meterologist.  Consider this "for entertainment purposes only."

The forecasts were captured at the same time, the day prior to the start of the contest, from the various forecasting groups' websites, for "Saskatoon, SK"

Here are the current round's results:

 

Here are our contest's rules:

 

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Posted in Farm related news | Tagged with weather weather forecasting saskatchewan saskatoon | More articles by Eric Anderson

Weather forecasting contest results to date


Written By: Eric Anderson, Jul 24, 2015

We've compiled the results from the first three week's of the weather forecasting conest.  The winner so far is AccuWeather, followed by

The contest consists of grabbing their forecasts at the same time on one day, for the following three days, for Saskatoon, SK.  We then check the Environment Canada posted results after the three days have passed and calculate the results.  Weather Farm's forecast is actually for a site north west of Saskatoon, so we post their results in comparison to their site's actual weather results and those of Environment Canada's.

For the first round, we did not include WeatherFarm - only AccuWeather, Environment Canada, and Weather Network.  So, we have results below for those included in all 3 rounds, then only the most recent 2 rounds.

 

Here is the formula we used.

 

 

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Posted in Farm related news | Tagged with weather weather forecasting saskatchewan saskatoon | More articles by Eric Anderson

Round 3 weather forecasting contest results


Written By: Eric Anderson, Jul 24, 2015

We've tabulated the scores for the third round of the "weather forecasting contest."  The third round was won by the Weather Network, followed by AccuWeather, then Environment Canada, and Weather Farm.

The contest consists of grabbing their forecasts at the same time on one day, for the following three days, for Saskatoon, SK.  We then check the Environment Canada posted results after the three days have passed and calculate the results.  Weather Farm's forecast is actually for a site north west of Saskatoon, so we post their results in comparison to their site's actual weather results and those of Environment Canada's.

Here is the formula we used.

 

We enter their forecasts into the below sheet and do the calculations.  Here are the current results:

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Posted in Farm related news | Tagged with weather forecast contest | More articles by Eric Anderson

Record El Nino makes global record-hot year look inevitable


Written By: Eric Anderson, Jul 20, 2015

Bloomberg is reporting that . . . .

This is a new kind of heat. In more than 135 years of global temperature data, four of the five hottest months on record all happened in 2015: February, March, May, and now June. 

This has been the hottest start to a year by far, according to data released today by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. The record heat is likely to continue as an already strong El Niño weather pattern in the Pacific Ocean continues to intensify, ripping more heat into the atmosphere. This monster El Niño may itself be on track to break records.

Results from the world's top monitoring agencies vary slightly. NOAA and the Japan Meteorological Agency both had June as the hottest month on record. NASA had it as tied with June 1998 for the hottest. All three agencies agree that there has never been a hotter start to the year than the past six months.

See http://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2015-07-20/monster-el-ni-o-makes-record-hot-year-look-inevitable

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Posted in Farm related news | Tagged with el nino global weather climate change | More articles by Eric Anderson

2nd weather forecasting contest results


Written By: Eric Anderson, Jul 20, 2015

The resuts from the 2nd weather forecasting contest are in.  The below charts reveal the most recent set, followed by the previous, and then the contest results formula.  AccuWeather seems to have the best 4-day forecasts - according to the rules we created without consulting a meterologist.  Consider this "for entertainment purposes only."

The forecasts were captured at 9:30 am the day prior to the start of the contest, from the various forecasting groups' websites, for "Saskatoon, SK"

 

 

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Posted in Farm related news | Tagged with weather weather forecasting saskatchewan saskatoon | More articles by Eric Anderson

Harvest Time - Around the Corner


Written By: Mitch Flaman, Marketing and Sales, Grain CleaningAug 21, 2014
And once again, the most exciting time of the year is here, Harvest. Depending on where you are in the prairies, harvest happens at different times. Some folks in Northern Alberta (La Crete area) already have the combines in full swing and in other parts, producers are just greasing up the swathers for next week. Either way, if you haven’t quite gotten into the full swing of things, it’s just around the corner. I was on top of a bin just north of Edmonton last night when I looked into the field and it hit me; harvest is underway! The sun was shining and the swathers were rolling. Harvest is a time where we get to see our efforts pay off, providing we worked late enough to get it all in the ground, prayed hard enough for the right weather to get it to grow, and crossed our fingers long enough to dodge any hail and disease.
 
Now compared to last year, this was a bit of a weird year. There doesn’t appear to be bumper crops across the board like there was last year. Throughout my travels, I have seen and heard many producers say this is the best crop they’ve had in years, and many others state this is the worst luck they’ve had in years. Last year it really didn’t matter where you went, “this is the best crop I have ever seen” was a statement heard throughout the prairies. Given the cool temperatures and all the rain that occurred at the beginning of the year, crops were pushed back about two eeks from the average. Before we knew it, it seemed like July was already gone and minimal was happening. Extended periods of warm weather in the past couple of weeks have really helped the crops start to turn.  Keep your eyes and ears open in the next couple of days, but if you haven’t already started getting snap chats and pictures sent to you that say “it’s starting” or “we’re underway!” I can assure you, you will.
 
Happy Harvest

Mitch Flaman  

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Posted in Division News | Tagged with harvest last season weather | More articles by Mitch Flaman