Flaman Rentals Blog

Saskatchewan crop report - harvest on schedule

Posted by Eric Anderson Oct 02, 2015

Released on October 1, 2015

Warm and relatively dry weather has allowed many producers to return to the field following last week’s rain delay.  Seventy-four per cent of the crop is now in the bin while 19 per cent is swathed or ready to straight-cut, according to Saskatchewan Agriculture’s Weekly Crop Report.  The five-year (2010-2014) average for this time of year is 71 per cent combined and 20 per cent swathed or ready to straight-cut.

Regionally, producers in the southeast are furthest advanced, having 88 per cent of the crop combined.  Producers in the southwest have 85 per cent combined.  Seventy per cent of the crop is combined in the west-central region; 66 per cent in the east-central region; 57 per cent in the northwest and 59 per cent in the northeast.

Eighty-seven per cent of mustard, 79 per cent of durum, 77 per cent of barley, 72 per cent of spring wheat, 70 per cent of canola, 46 per cent of soybeans and 33 per cent of flax have been combined.

The majority of the province did not receive any rainfall this past week. Provincially, topsoil moisture conditions on cropland are rated as five per cent surplus, 86 per cent adequate, eight per cent short and one per cent very short.  Hay land and pasture topsoil moisture conditions are rated as three per cent surplus, 76 per cent adequate, 18 per cent short and three per cent very short.

Many areas received frost this past week, although damage is minimal in most cases as crops were mature.  Weather-related quality issues continue to cause concern in most areas.  While overall yields are reported to be about average, they vary from region to region.

The Ministry of Agriculture has a Forage, Feed and Custom Service listing for producers to advertise and source feed products.  It is available at www.agriculture.gov.sk.ca/FeedForageListing.

Farmers are busy harvesting and hauling grain and bales.


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Next StatsCan survey expected to show larger canola, wheat crops

Posted by Eric Anderson Sep 30, 2015

CNS Canada — Yields are generally beating earlier expectations as the harvest progresses across Western Canada, which should lead to upward revisions to canola and wheat when Statistics Canada releases its latest production survey results Friday.

However, those numbers still may be underreported, and further revisions are expected in subsequent reports.

“As the harvest is moving along, we’re seeing harvest results come in better than what people were thinking prior to getting in the field,” said Jon Driedger, senior analyst with FarmLink Marketing Solutions.

“StatsCan is notorious for revising crop estimates higher long after the fact,” he added.

Pre-report trade estimates for canola range from roughly 13.5 million to 15.2 million tonnes, which would compare with the August estimate of 13.3 million tonnes and the model-based forecast released in September of 14.4 million. In 2014-15 Canadian farmers grew 16.4 million tonnes of canola.

“I wouldn’t be surprised if the final number came in above 15 (million),” said Driedger, although he was uncertain if the October report would be that large.

All-wheat production is forecast at anywhere from 24.7 million to 26.5 million tonnes, which compares with the August estimate of 24.6 million and the year-ago level of 29.4 million tonnes.

Of that total, durum production is estimated at 4.5 million to 5.1 million tonnes. Canadian farmers grew 5.2 million tonnes of durum in 2014-15.

While drought conditions caused concerns early in the growing season, “weather conditions improved as we went along… with better yields even in some of the worst-hit areas,” said Neil Townsend, director of market research services for G3 Canada, formerly CWB.

Townsend attributed the better-than-expected crops in part to improved varieties and genetics.

Phil Franz-Warkentin writes for Commodity News Service Canada, a Winnipeg company specializing in grain and commodity market reporting.


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Saskatchewan crops average with some quality issues

Posted by Eric Anderson Sep 25, 2015

Saskatchewan's current crop report is full of the phrase "average but some quality issues."  Progress is ahead of average.

Details here

Summary below:

CROP REPORT FOR THE PERIOD SEPTEMBER 15 TO 21, 2015

Released on September 24, 2015

Cool and wet weather during the week slowed down harvest operations.  Sixty per cent of the 2015 crop is now combined and 28 per cent is swathed or ready to straight-cut, according to Saskatchewan Agriculture’s Weekly Crop Report.  The five-year (2010-2014) average for this time of year is 56 per cent combined and 27 per cent swathed or ready to straight-cut.

Regionally, producers in the southwest are furthest advanced, having 81 per cent of the crop combined.  Producers in the southeast have 79 per cent combined.  Fifty-two per cent of the crop is combined in the west-central region; 47 per cent in the east-central region; 32 per cent in the northwest; and 34 per cent in the northeast.

Rainfall this past week ranged from trace amounts to nearly two inches in northern regions.  Provincially, topsoil moisture conditions on cropland are rated as 11 per cent surplus, 81 per cent adequate, seven per cent short and one per cent very short.  Hay land and pasture topsoil moisture conditions are rated as three per cent surplus, 82 per cent adequate, 13 per cent short and two per cent very short.

Some areas experienced frost, although damage is minimal in most cases as crops were mature.  However, weather-related quality issues such as bleaching and sprouting continue to cause concern in some areas.  While overall yields are reported to be about average, they vary from region to region.  Crop damage this past week was mainly attributed to rain, wind and flooding.

Provincially, seven per cent of the pasture is reported to be in excellent condition while 52 per cent is in good condition, 34 per cent fair, six per cent poor and one per cent in very poor condition.

The Ministry of Agriculture has a Forage, Feed and Custom Service listing for producers to advertise and source feed products.  It is available at www.agriculture.gov.sk.ca/FeedForageListing.

Farmers are busy with harvest operations, fall spraying, machinery repairs, and hauling grain and bales.


 


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Flax crop could be 30% bigger than last year's

Posted by Eric Anderson Sep 25, 2015

Posted by

CNS Canada –– Canada’s 2015-16 flax crop could be about 30 per cent bigger than last year’s, according to an expert in the industry.

“A million tonnes is what they’re talking about for Canada,” said Richard Zacharias, general manager of Prairie Flax Products near Portage la Prairie, Man.

While the majority of the crop still has to come off, samples Zacharias has seen so far have left him optimistic.

“The quality is good, the yields are good; they’ll be average to above-average,” he said.

The yields he’s seen lead him to think the crop could average 30 bushels an acre, he said, which would be up slightly from last year’s output.

According to Prairie Ag Hotwire, a bushel of flax is selling for $12, slightly softer than a year ago.

“The market is probably going down a bit because it was really a big crop this year, so once you get a larger supply the demand obviously is eased a bit, so prices do tend to go down a little,” Zacharias said. “It is certainly not going up, that’s for sure.”

One saving grace has been the decline in the Canadian dollar. “Seventy per cent of our sales are in U.S. dollars,” said Zacharias.

Flax’s three main uses are in the bakery sector, pet food and animal feed.

While the flax harvest is well underway, Zacharias said more half of it is still on the field — partly because of how well it handles the cold.

“You can actually harvest it after a dead frost; it doesn’t get damaged.”


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New report uses new model to estimate crop production for Canada

Posted by Eric Anderson Sep 17, 2015

Statistics Canada has released a crop estimate using a new modeling method - see below:

Model-based principal field crop estimates, August 31, 2015

Released: 2015-09-17

http://www.statcan.gc.ca/daily-quotidien/150917/dq150917c-eng.htm?cmp=mstatcan

 

Model-based principal field crop estimates, which provide yield and production estimates for Canada's principal field crops, are now available.

The estimates are calculated with a new and innovative approach developed by Statistics Canada in close partnership with Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada. This method uses a model that incorporates coarse resolution satellite data from Statistics Canada's Crop Condition Assessment Program, data from Statistics Canada's Field Crop Reporting Series and agroclimatic data.

This is the first release of crop estimates produced according to this methodology. The modelled yield estimates constitute a supplemental release in advance of the September publication of the Field Crop Reporting Series.

Based on a modelling approach, production of wheat and canola at the national level (see note to readers) is estimated to be lower in 2015 than in 2014, while soybeans, corn for grain, and barley and oats are anticipated to rise over last year.

Wheat

At the national level, spring wheat production is estimated to be 18.4 million tonnes in 2015, down 13.0% from 2014. This estimated decrease in production is mainly the result of a lower estimated average yield. The average yield is anticipated to be 40.5 bushels per acre, down 11.7% from the 45.9 bushels per acre reported in 2014. The harvested acreage for 2015 is reported to have edged down 1.5% compared with 2014.

Spring wheat production is anticipated to decrease in Saskatchewan (-19.8%) and Alberta (-23.3%). Estimated average yields in Saskatchewan are anticipated to be down 14.0% compared with 2014 to 34.9 bushels per acre. In Alberta, the estimated average yield is expected to decrease 20.1% from 2014 to 41.4 bushels per acre.

In contrast, Manitoba spring wheat production is estimated to increase 26.2% in 2015. This gain was boosted by an estimated higher yield of 52.2 bushels per acre, a 7.0% increase over 2014, and a reported 18.0% increase in harvested area.

Average yields for durum wheat at the national level are estimated to decline 24.5% from 2014 to 30.9 bushels per acre. Despite much lower estimated yields, national production is estimated to decline 8.0% from 2014 to 4.8 million tonnes as a result of a 22.1% increase in reported harvested acreage in 2015.

Canola

At the national level, canola production is estimated to be 14.4 million tonnes in 2015, down 11.6% from 2014. This estimated decrease in production is a combined result of both lower average yields and anticipated harvested acreage. Estimated average yields for 2015 are down 7.2% from 2014 to 32.6 bushels per acre. Anticipated harvested acreage will be down 4.9% in 2015, another factor in the decrease in the production estimate.

Estimated average yield, reported harvested acres and production are all forecast to decrease in Saskatchewan and Alberta, two major canola-producing regions. Canola crops have been affected by a late frost in May and by drought and hot conditions for much of the growing season in the two provinces. On the other hand, increased production is anticipated in Manitoba as a result of higher estimated yields combined with a slight increase in reported harvested area.

Soybeans

At the national level, soybean production is estimated to be 5.9 million tonnes in 2015, up 2.1% from 2014 despite a reported decrease in harvested area in Quebec (-9.0%) and Ontario (-4.6%). Soybean yields are estimated to increase in all provinces in 2015. Production is anticipated to increase by 22.6% in Manitoba to 1.4 million tonnes in 2015, the result of both increased yield (+17.0% to 37.8 bushels per acre) and reported harvested acreage (+4.8% to 1.3 million acres).

Corn for grain

At the national level, corn for grain production is estimated to increase 12.5% from 2014 to 12.7 million tonnes in 2015. Corn for grain yields are estimated to increase in all provinces in 2015. Higher yields and reported harvested acreage will lead to increased production in Ontario (+13.4% to 8.6 million tonnes) and Quebec (+13.3% to 3.4 million tonnes). In Manitoba, production is estimated to decline 0.5% to 693 000 tonnes. This will be the result of an 8.2% decrease in anticipated harvested acres, which will offset an estimated yield increase of 8.4% to 121.2 bushels per acre in 2015.

Barley and oats

At the national level, barley production is estimated to increase 0.5% from 2014 to 7.0 million tonnes in 2015. An 8.1% increase in reported harvested area (5.6 million acres in total) is anticipated to offset a 7.0% decrease in estimated average yield (57.8 bushels per acre).

At the national level, oat production is estimated to increase 10.9% from 2014 to 3.2 million tonnes in 2015. The rise in production is forecast to be the result of an 18.4% increase in reported harvested acres (2.6 million acres in total), while estimated average yield is anticipated to fall 6.3% to 79.6 bushels per acre.

 


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CWB crop estimates wheat at 38.9 b/a, canola at 29.3

Posted by Eric Anderson Jul 24, 2015

Reuters is reporitng that  . . .

Western Canada spring wheat, durum and canola yields look to fall sharply from last year’s levels, due to hot, dry conditions, leaders of a crop tour said on Friday.

The second-annual CWB Market Research Services crop tour pegged spring wheat yield potential in the region at 38.9 bushels per acre on average, down from last year’s actual yield of 45.7 bushels, and the smallest in eight years.

The potential durum yield fell to 27.8 bushels per acre from last year’s yield of 40.9 bushels, the smallest since 2003.

Canola yields looked to reach 29.3 bushels per acre on average, down from last year’s 34.4 bushels and the lowest in three years.

CWB under-estimated crops on the eastern Prairies before the tour. After the tour, it raised its estimates for Western Canadian production of all-wheat to 23.1 million tonnes (22.02 million previously), spring wheat output to 18.14 million tonnes (17.25 million), durum to 4.19 million tonnes (4 million), and canola to 12.49 million tonnes (from 12.15 million).

Full story at http://www.agcanada.com/daily/cwb-tour-pegs-wheat-at-38-9-bushels


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