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Wheat production estimates up significantly, Canola expected to keep climbing further

Posted by Eric Anderson Oct 02, 2015

CNS Canada — Despite an upward revision of nearly a million tonnes in Statistics Canada’s latest report [this morning’s], most analysts expect canola production will keep climbing further.

 

StatsCan on Friday morning released its updated grain/oilseed production estimates, with data collected through surveys taken between Sept. 3 and 13.

 

Canola production numbers came in at 14.3 million tonnes, which compares to 13.3 million in the previous report. Canada grew 16.4 million tonnes of canola in 2014.

 

Jonathon Driedger of FarmLink Marketing Solutions, near Grunthal, Man., described the report as pretty uneventful.

 

“Most numbers came in line with what the trade was expecting. Probably in the case of canola the number is pretty close to the recent number StatsCan has put out with their different methodology,” he said, referring to the agency’s September report which took into account satellite data and environmental factors along with survey responses.

 

Another analyst agreed with the notion that canola will likely keep increasing in subsequent reports.

 

“The next report is going to be closer to 15 (million tonnes) than 14.5, I can guarantee you,” said Wayne Palmer of Agri-Trend Marketing in Winnipeg.

Mike Jubinville of ProFarmer Canada said he thinks the StatsCan survey likely missed the period when yields started to increase as a result of the late summer rain.

 

“The last third or half of this harvest is probably where some of the bigger yields are. This survey was from the 3rd (of September) to the 13th, so it didn’t capture that.”

 

Most of the other crop estimates, he said, were in line with what he expected, except for barley.

 

“StatsCan boosted the harvest area by 138,000 acres, which is a bit unusual,” he said, adding that if anything, he thought barley would have lost acreage. Canada grew 7.1 million tonnes of barley last year.

 

StatsCan pegged barley production in today’s report at 7.6 million tonnes, compared to 7.3 million in the previous report.

 

All-wheat production also rose by a significant margin. StatsCan pegged it in today’s report at 26.1 million tonnes, which compares to 24.6 million in the previous report. Last year Canada grew 29.4 million tonnes of all wheat.

 

Keith Ferley of RBC Dominion Securities in Winnipeg said he was a little surprised by the increase but doesn’t expect it to rise much further in any subsequent reports.

 

“The cereals didn’t respond in the dry western regions as well as the canola did, because the rains came too late for them,” he explained.

For Jubinville’s part, he thinks all-wheat production numbers could still keep climbing.

 

“I won’t be surprised if the yield average gets bumped up more… we could see a 27 million (-tonne) wheat crop,” he said.

 

Dave Sims writes for Commodity News Service Canada, a Winnipeg company specializing in grain and commodity market reporting. Follow CNS Canada at @CNSCanada on Twitter.

 

 

Table: A quick summary of Statistics Canada’s latest crop production estimates for 2015-16, in millions of tonnes. Pre-report estimates and final 2014-15 figures included for comparison.


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Prairies' harvest a tale of two wheat crops

Posted by Eric Anderson Oct 02, 2015

CNS Canada — Prairie farmers are in the final stages of harvesting the 2015 wheat crop, and while yields continue to beat earlier expectations, there’s a distinct quality difference between crops harvested early and those harvested late.

“In our country, all of the grain was top grade, but anything that was left out at this stage is probably a No. 3,” said Bill Craddock, a Manitoba farmer and local trader.

That sentiment is even more pronounced in Saskatchewan and Alberta.

“The first half of harvest had quality patterns in the top tier,” said market analyst Jon Driedger of Farm Link Marketing Solutions.

However, while the early-harvested wheat was generally hitting No. 1 or No. 2 quality levels, the last half was hit by rain and a good portion of that will grade No. 3 or lower.

The question now is how much will be pushed all the way down into feed-grade and how much is still salvageable for milling quality, said Driedger. “The longer this drags out, the worse it gets.”

However, grade spreads for the good-quality early-harvested wheat are not widening out as much as could be expected, with the trade still feeling it will be able to work with the supplies available, he said.

The supply of good-quality grain is still better than last year when there was more widespread degradation, said Neil Townsend, director of market research services at G3 Canada, formerly CWB.


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StatsCan raises wheat, canola estimates with new model

Posted by Eric Anderson Sep 17, 2015

CNS Canada — Wheat and canola production are expected to be higher than in previous estimates, but still lower than in 2014, according to a new Statistics Canada model for field crop production estimates.

The model-based report, released Thursday, pegs this year’s spring wheat production at 18.4 million tonnes, higher than previously forecast in the Aug. 21 Production of Principal Field Crops report, which estimated spring wheat production at about 18 million.

Despite the increase, wheat production will still be down 13 per cent from 2014.

Canola production is expected to hit 14.4 million tonnes, compared with Aug. 21 estimate of 13.3 million.

However, canola will still see an 11.6 per cent decrease from 2014.

At this point, traders are shrugging off the new information, but it could act as an influencer moving forward.

The report, using data collected up to the end of August, confirms what the market had expected, said Jerry Klassen, manager of the Canadian office for Swiss-based GAP SA Grains and Products.

“I don’t think this is having too much of an impact overall, I think it confirms we’re down from last year.

“For now I think the trade is fairly comfortable with that production number.”

The new model-based principal field estimates are calculated with a system developed by StatsCan and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada.

The report isn’t more or less accurate than StatsCan’s previous crop production report; it’s just a different way of collecting the information, said Cindy Carter, senior analyst for StatsCan’s crops unit.

“They’re looking at having this model replace the September survey in the future.”

The method incorporates coarse-resolution satellite and agroclimatic data and incorporates information from StatsCan’s field crop reporting series.

Klassen said traders will balance the survey-based and model-based numbers and use both to come up with a yield estimate.

“It helps give us an idea, if there was significant discrepancies on the survey — it’s one more piece of information that can be used.”

The model-based report puts soybean production across Canada at 5.9 million tonnes, up 2.1 per cent from 2014, while grain corn is expected to total 12.7 million tonnes, up 12.5 per cent.

Barley production is pegged at seven million tonnes, up 0.5 per cent from 2014, while oat production is forecast to rise 10.9 per cent to 3.2 million tonnes.

Jade Markus writes for Commodity News Service Canada, a Winnipeg company specializing in grain and commodity market reporting. Follow her at @jade_markus on Twitter. Includes files from AGCanada.com Network staff.

Table: A quick summary of Statistics Canada’s model-based principal field crop estimates as of Aug. 31, 2015, released Sept. 17, 2015. Survey production estimates and last year’s crop production are included for comparison. Production in millions of tonnes.

  Model.  . Survey.  . 2014-15
Spring wheat.   . 18.4 18.0 21.3
Durum 4.8 4.5 5.2
Oats 3.2 3.3 3.0
Barley 7.0 7.3 7.1
Canola 14.4 13.3 16.4

 


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Alberta Crop Conditions as of August 25, 2015 - yields 76%-83% of normal

Posted by Eric Anderson Aug 28, 2015

Alberta Crop Conditions as of August 25, 2015

Showers or rain was reported in virtually all areas of the province last week affecting harvest progress. Harvest is estimated at slightly less than 10% complete with an additional 12% in the swath, up from 6% combined and 6% swathed the prior week. The 5 year average for this date is 11% swathed and 4% combined. Frost was reported in northern regions in the August 21-22 time period. Damage is yet to be determined but most crops should be beyond the stage for significant damage to be expected with the possible exception of canola. Crop yield estimates continue to improve as more harvest information becomes available. Yield averages improved in 4 of the 5 regions with the Peace being the only region to decline. Yield estimates improved significantly in the North West region which is the region most affected by the dry conditions. Second growth is a significant problem for producers this year. Decisions will be required whether to wait, swath now or desiccate.

Provincial soil moisture ratings improved for both surface and sub soil ratings. Surface moisture improved 3 points to 39% rated good or excellent. Significant improvements were reported in South and Central regions. Subsoil moisture improved 2 points to 34% rated good or excellent with good improvements in the South and North East regions off set somewhat by marginal declines in the North West and Peace regions.

Hay and pasture ratings showed a slight improvement to 19% of the province rated good or excellent. Ratings were higher in the South and Central regions and little changed in the remainder of the province. Current provincial ratings are: 42% Poor (- 1); 39% Fair (no change); 19% Good (+ 2); < 1% Excellent (no change). Approximately 55% of the province indicates there will be a 2nd cut dryland hay crop. Currently, 16% of the 2nd cut dryland crop and 65% of the 2nd cut irrigated crop is baled.




Regional Assessments:
The 2015 Alberta Crop Report Series provides summaries for the following five regions:

Region One: Southern (Strathmore, Lethbridge, Medicine Hat, Foremost)

  • Showers slowed harvest operations. Heavier rains received in west portion of the region.
  • 17% of crop swathed; 24% harvested (+ 4 percentage points for the week).
  • Regional yield estimates improved to 76.3% of the 5 year average. Improved yield estimates for spring wheat, durum, barley, oats and field peas. Yield estimates declined minimally for canola (- 0.1 bu/acre).
  • Surface soil moisture ratings improved to 36% good or excellent (+ 7 points); sub soil moisture improved to 30% good or excellent (+ 3 percentage points).
  • Hay and pastures improved with 47% rated poor (- 4 points) and 14% rated good or excellent (+ 2 points).

Region Two: Central (Rimbey, Airdrie, Coronation, Oyen)

  • Fairly general rain across the region with heavier amounts in the west.
  • 9% of crop swathed; 4% harvested (+ 2 percentage points for the week).
  • Regional yield estimates improved to 80.2% of the 5 year average. Yield estimates improved for all crops except durum which was unchanged. Barley and oat estimates increased 2 bushels/acre, canola, peas and spring wheat estimates increased 1 bushel/acre.
  • Surface soil moisture improved to 59% rated good or excellent (+ 4 points). Sub soil moisture improved by 1 percentage point to 50% rated good or excellent.
  • Hay/pasture ratings showed significant improvement with a 2 point decline in the Poor rating to 33% and with a 5 point increase to the good or excellent rating to 28%.

Region Three: North East (Smoky Lake, Vermilion, Camrose, Provost)

  • Showers reported in much of the region with light rain in the east portion along the Saskatchewan border. Light frost reported in western portion of the region.
  • 5% of crop swathed; 3% harvested (+ 2.5 percentage points for the week).
  • Regional yield estimates increased to 78.0% of the 5 year average. Estimates improved for all crops by 1 bushel/acre.
  • Surface soil moisture ratings improved by 2 points to 41% rated good or excellent. Sub soil ratings are 37% rated good or excellent (up 6 points).
  • Pasture/hay ratings unchanged at 23% rated good or excellent.

Region Four: North West (Barrhead, Edmonton, Leduc, Drayton Valley, Athabasca)

  • Light showers reported throughout the region. Frost reported in many areas.
  • 5% of crops swathed; 5% harvested (+ 4 percentage points for the week).
  • Regional yield estimates are significantly higher than previously reported at 76.9% of the 5 year average yield (previously 69.4%). Yield estimates increased 4 – 6 bushels/acre with barley the exception with 1 bushel decline.
  • Surface soil moisture improved marginally with less than 1 point increase to 19% good or excellent. Sub soil moisture ratings declined to 15% good or excellent (- 3 points).
  • Pasture/hay ratings were virtually unchanged with 11% of region rated good or excellent.

Region Five: Peace River (Fairview, Falher, Grande Prairie, Valleyview)

  • Region received variable precipitation from light, spotty showers to 50 mm of rain. Heavy frost reported.
  • 23% of crops swathed; 6% combined (+ 4 percentage points for the week).
  • Regional yield estimates declined marginally to 83.1% of 5 year yield average. Yield estimates declined by approximately 0.5 bushels/acre. The exception was field pea yield which increased approximately 1 bushel/acre.
  • Surface and sub soil moisture ratings were reported as unchanged at 26% rated good or excellent.
  • Pasture/hay ratings declined 1 percentage point to 15% rated good or excellent.

 

 

 


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Manitoba crop yield average or above average

Posted by Eric Anderson Aug 26, 2015

MB Crop Report

Issue 17, August 24, 2015

 

 

Weekly Provincial Summary 

•Good harvest progress was made in Manitoba throughout the week due to moderate temperatures and dry conditions. To date, yields of winter and spring wheat, barley, oats and canola are average to above average. Good quality is also noted.

•However, a weather system passed through several areas of Manitoba over the weekend that resulted in a wide range of precipitation amounts and strong winds, along with hail in isolated areas.

•Harvest operations are halted and will resume once weather and field conditions allow.

•The precipitation will benefit later maturing crops, as well as hay fields and pastures.

 

Southwest Region

In the Southwest Region, scattered showers in some areas slowed harvest progress through the week. Over the weekend, rainfall amounts ranged from 15 to 40 mm with some areas reporting as high as 75 mm.

 

The winter cereal harvest is nearing completion with generally average to slightly above average yields and quality. Spring cereals are in the final stages of maturity. Spring wheat and barley swathing and preharvest applications are on-going. Some initial harvesting operations have started and early spring wheat and barley yields are above long term averages.

 

Canola crop maturity has advanced with the earliest canola fields being swathed. Most reseeded fields are fully podded and beginning to dry down. Disease levels in both early and later seeded canola continue to be minimal. There are some difficulties in swathing due to lodging.

 

Most field peas have been desiccated or swathed with a significant percentage harvested; yields are above long term averages. Flax fields are maturing with no disease issues reported. Weed pressure is high in some flax fields.

 

Corn and sunflowers are doing well with no production issues currently noted. Soybean growth and maturity slowed over this past week with maturities in the full R5 (seed set) to early R6 (pod filling) stage of development. Some fields that have missed recent thundershowers are beginning to show symptoms of moisture stress and premature dry down.

 

Some areas in the region have seen a start to second cut alfalfa with yields average to above average and variable to good quality depending upon rainfall. Greenfeed silage is being harvested with average to above average yields reported. Pastures that were overgrazed in spring remain in poor condition due to reduced regrowth. Water levels in dugouts range from 75 to 90% of capacity, depending on the area.

 

Northwest Region

Harvest was interrupted mid-week when thunderstorm activity resulted in random rain showers through parts of the Northwest Region. Unsettled weather also continued through the weekend. Rainfall amounts ranged from 0 to over 25 mm depending on location. There was hail reported in the southern part of the Swan Valley late in the week. The resulting damage to field crops has not yet been determined. Soil moisture conditions are adequate in most parts of the region and excessive in some localized areas that received heavy downpours.

 

Wheat harvest is the furthest advanced in the region. Approximately 40% of the winter wheat crop has been harvested. It is estimated that 20% of the hard red wheat crop has been combined. Reported yields are extremely variable and range from 20 to 70 bu/acre. About 30% of the spring wheat crop is in the dough stage and 70% is mature. Preharvest treatments are nearing completion.

 

The canola crop continues to improve and develop rapidly. Approximately 90% of the canola crop is podded with about 10% mature.

 

Approximately 10% of the corn crop is tasseling, 80% is at the blister stage of growth and 10% is at the milk stage. In soybeans, 100% of the crop is podded. In flax, 95% of the flax crop is at the boll stage of growth and 5% is mature.

 

Rain over the weekend has halted haying and silage operations. Second cut harvest is seeing average yields and native hay is also being harvested. Some late seeded annual crops intended for grain are being considered for silage harvest or greenfeed. The recent rainfall was welcome for pasture growth. Water supplies are adequate.

 

Central Region

In the Central Region, moderate to cool temperatures for the week allowed for good harvest progress. However, rainfall impacted the whole region on the weekend with precipitation amounts ranging from almost none along the south central part of the region to as much as 85 mm on the eastern side. The precipitation was welcome for the later maturing crops like soybeans and corn, including some acres that were showing symptoms of moisture stress. However, wet field conditions in some areas will impact harvest operations. Fields in the northern part of the region are soft and more difficult to access with machinery. Strong winds were also reported during the day on Sunday but there are no reports to date of significant crop damage.

 

Cereal crop harvest has progressed. Wheat harvest is reported at 40 to 80% complete with the Red River Valley being the most advanced. Harvest of winter wheat and fall rye is almost complete. Yields of winter wheat are reported in the 55 to 90 bu/acre range; average is expected to be in the 65 to 75 bu/acre range. Spring wheat harvest continues, with higher yields in the general purpose/feed wheat varieties. Quality is generally good, but variability is noted due to lodging. Red spring wheat protein contents are ranging from 12 to 15%, while general purpose/feed wheat ranges from 11 to 13%. Harvest management applications continue in spring wheat fields.

 

There is a wide range in canola development due to the varied seeding dates. Combining of canola is well underway in the Red River Valley with as much as 40% of the crop harvested. Most canola fields on the escarpment are just being swathed as a result of late spring frost and reseeding. Early yield reports are variable, with the best looking fields yielding 40 to 50 bu/acre, while fields that struggled are as low as 30 bu/acre.

 

Sunflowers are still flowering; monitoring continues for insects. Sunflower beetle numbers are low, while lygus bug numbers are at threshold levels or higher, and most fields are sprayed. Corn has benefitted from the recent rain. Most soybean fields are finished flowering. Some fields in the Red River Valley are showing increasing symptoms due to excess moisture and subsequent root rots. Conversely, fields on the west side of the escarpment were showing signs of moisture stress and should benefit from the weekend rain. Some of the earliest seeded fields are seeing leaf colour change. Reports of soybean aphids have not increased, and most fields are well below threshold level; only the odd field required an insecticide application.

 

Edible beans are starting to turn indicating advanced maturity stage and some fields are being cut. Pea fields are mature and many are already harvested. Harvesting of some fields is being delayed due to wet field conditions.

Some fields have been cultivated, following harvest.

 

Second cut hay harvest is mostly complete. The wettest areas in the northwest part of the region report poor quality second cut; some is not advanced enough to take another cut and producers are waiting to see if there will be enough growth to warrant a second cut. Low lying areas and sloughs are being cut for feed when producers are able to access them. Pastures are rated good to fair.

 

Eastern Region

In the Eastern Region, weather early in the week was mostly sunny with cooler temperatures. Warmer weather returned as the week progressed. However, on Friday and into the weekend, thunderstorms resulted in precipitation ranging from 25 mm to 178 mm, with the most impacted areas north of Caliento to Sandilands, east of Vita and Beausejour. Oakbank, Stead and Winnipeg Beach areas also received hail.

 

Winter wheat harvesting is 90% complete overall with most fields in central and northern districts completed with an average yield of 70 bu/acre and average quality. Spring wheat harvest is 50% complete with the greatest progress in central and northern districts and an average yield of 60 bu/acre with average quality. Thus far, reported protein levels range from 13 to 15% and low fusarium damaged kernel levels. About 25% of the oat crop is harvested with an average yield of 110 bu/acre with average quality. About 10% of the canola is harvested with an average yield of 55 bu/acre with average quality. Swathing or preharvest herbicide applications in canola are in full swing as the crop is maturing quickly.

 

Soybeans are primarily in the R6 growth stage. Sunflowers are in R6 to R7 growth stages with corn in the blister (R2) growth stage.

 

Pasture conditions are rated at 80% good, 10% fair and 10% poor. Haying is in full swing with 90% of the greenfeed and native hay harvested. Some producers are still dealing with wet hay fields. Some spring cereal crops that were recently damaged by hail are being baled for feed. Currently, hay supplies are rated at 20% surplus and 80% adequate. Straw, greenfeed and feed grain supplies are all rated as adequate. Availability of livestock water is also adequate.

 

Interlake Region

Cool, dry conditions were experienced throughout the Interlake Region early last week. During Friday evening and Saturday morning, heavy rainfall occurred. Rainfall amounts varied throughout the Interlake Region, ranging from 15 to 80 mm; Eriksdale, Selkirk and Teulon received 50 to 80 mm of rainfall during the weekend. Pea sized hail was also reported in the Teulon area; shattering in canola occurred as a result. For areas that received heavy rainfall, field travel will be impacted and will slow down the progress of harvest.

 

Harvest is estimated at 10 to 15% complete. Harvesting of spring cereals and canola fields occurred during week. Reports of spring wheat yields ranging from 50 to 75 bu/acre with protein levels around 14.0%. Oat yields range from 100 to 115 bu/acre. Canola yields range from 35 to 40 bu/acre.

 

Harvesting of most forage grass seed fields is complete. Soybeans are in the R6 growth stage, corn is in the blister (R2) stage and sunflowers in the R6 to R7 stage.

 

Cooler temperatures and scattered showers brought a reprieve from the grasshopper pressure in pastures and weevil damage in hay fields. Pastures are holding out fairly well. Greenfeed and silage harvest is in full swing with average yields.

 


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Overall crop conditions still improving

Posted by Eric Anderson Aug 25, 2015

The imagery from the Crop Condition Assessment Program shows continued crop improvement.  The August 23rd image displays most regions approaching "normal."   An image from August 9th shows a much large and consistent "brown" or "below normal area." in Alberta.  Going back to July 6th, most of the prairies was "brown" or "below normal."

 

 


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Crop conditions holding their ground

Posted by Eric Anderson Aug 10, 2015

Today's new imagery reveals that things have hle dtheir ground - with more blue areas (good) and the brown being pushed out (well, at least for SK and MB).  To see how much things have changed, see http://www.flaman.com/blog.php?id=225&title=Crop conditions improving a lot


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Crop conditions continue improving

Posted by Eric Anderson Aug 06, 2015

Things continue to improve!  More dark blue (higher than normal vegetation), and the brown (much lower than normal) has almost been entirely squeezed out of Saskatchewan and Manitoba.

 


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Rain helps a lot of the prairies get back to normal

Posted by Eric Anderson Jul 29, 2015

The past few days' rain accumulation was several inches across a lot of the prairies.  The map below reveals the past 7-days' accumulation.

This rain moved a lot of regions back to normal accumulation levels for the year.  The first image below is where we are at today, the 2nd was where we were at on July 1st (when compared to normal).

 


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Crop conditions improving even more

Posted by Eric Anderson Jul 27, 2015

The July 26 crop condition assessment imagery reveals that the recent rains have helped a lot of areas' crops.  The July 26 image portrays less brown with more yellow and blue regions, than say the July 5 image (both provided below).  This means that in comparison to previous years, more areas are starting to look similar and some even better than normal.

 

 


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CWB tour reports crops varied in Saskatchewan

Posted by Eric Anderson Jul 22, 2015

The effect of this years dry weather is becoming increasingly apparent as the CWB crop tour moves into Saskatchewan.
Lack of moisture is visible in southwestern Manitoba and southeastern Saskatchewan, the CWB tour found.

However, dryness hasn’t been all bad in some areas — participants from the 2014 crop tour recall a field last year that was drowned out and covered in cattails. This year the same field near Hartney, Man. still had signs of moisture damage, but canola crops had improved significantly.


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Crop conditions improving

Posted by Eric Anderson Jul 20, 2015

Less brown (bad) now and more green (good) than before.

 

Charts from http://www26.statcan.ca/ccap-peec/start-debut-eng.jsp


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Dry weather reduces wheat midge problem

Posted by Eric Anderson Jul 20, 2015

CNS is reporting that . . . .

CNS Canada — Wheat midge hasn’t been causing as many problems as first anticipated in Western Canada this year, as a dry spring hindered the pests’ emergence.

The Saskatchewan Ministry of Agriculture’s wheat midge forecast, released earlier this year, initially showed high risk levels for the insect, but the dryness is hampering their effects on crops.

“Dr. Bob Elliott’s work at Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada has shown that if you don’t get 25 mm of precipitation prior to the end of May, it will affect wheat midge emergence,” provincial insect specialist Scott Hartley said.

“Although some areas did, like down in southeast Saskatchewan was probably one area that did, there are a number of areas that didn’t — it’s just been that dry.”

Wheat midge populations need moisture by the end of May to trigger them to go into their pupal stage, so the dryness results in later, more erratic emergence.

Crop development in Western Canada this year has also varied widely along with weather conditions, which has lowered the crops’ susceptibly to midge damage.


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